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Mercado financeiro eleva previsão de crescimento do PIB para 4,36%

7 de junho de 2021 Redação

BC, em Brasília, com a projeção para os principais indicadores econômicos.

Inflação

A previsão do mercado financeiro para o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) deste ano subiu de 5,31% para 5,44%, na nona alta consecutiva.

A estimativa para 2021 supera o limite da meta de inflação que deve ser perseguida pelo BC. O centro da meta, definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional, é de 3,75%, com intervalo de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual para cima ou para baixo. Ou seja, o limite inferior é de 2,25% e o superior de 5,25%.

Para 2022, a estimativa de inflação foi ajustada de 3,68% para 3,70%. Tanto para 2023 como para 2024 a previsão para o índice é de 3,25%.

O centro da meta de inflação para 2022 é 3,50% e para 2023, 3,25%, com intervalo de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual para os dois anos.

Taxa de juros

Para alcançar a meta de inflação, o Banco Central usa como principal instrumento a taxa básica de juros, a Selic, fixada atualmente em 3,5% ao ano pelo Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom).

Para o mercado financeiro, a expectativa é de que a Selic termine 2021 em 5,75% ao ano. Para o fim de 2022, 2023 e 2024, a estimativa é de que a taxa básica encerre estes períodos em 6,5% ao ano.

Câmbio

A expectativa para a cotação do dólar permaneceu em R$ 5,30 para o final deste ano e de 2022.

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